S3E9 – How the 2024 Presidential Election Could Affect the Stock Market

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Today we’re braving the waters of politics and markets—a conversation that’s becoming more pressing as we advance into March.

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Main Points of Discussion:

• The Premature Arrival of Election Talks: It feels like we just talked about elections, but here we are, already in the thick of it, even in client meetings since last fall.
• A Non-Political Look at a Political Event: Steering clear of political biases, this episode focuses on the impact the presidential elections may have on the markets.
• The Divisiveness in Politics and its Market Impact: Discussing how the current political climate could influence market behaviors and investor sentiments.
• Historical Contentious Debates: A historical look back at past presidential elections to provide context to today’s political climate. Remembering that our country’s history has weathered severe divisiveness, even to the point of a nation split.
• The Human Brain and Recency Bias: Understanding how our minds emphasize forthcoming challenges more critically than those we’ve already experienced.
• What to Pay Attention to and What Not to: Advice on differentiating between election noise and genuinely impactful information concerning the stock market.
• Investment Strategies During Election Cycles: Encouraging listeners not to invest based on political fears but on historical market trends.

Key Takeaways:

• Elections matter but remember to make investment decisions based on data and trends, not political fervor.
• Stock market performance has shown strong returns under various political administrations.
• Historically, the market tends to continue its upward trajectory despite the ruling party.
• “Vote with your ballot, not your savings.” Analysis shows that major policy shifts between administrations, like the Obama and Trump eras, demonstrate market resilience.
• Optimism for Economic Growth: No matter the federal regulations or policies, the economy finds a way to advance.

Companion Article:

To complement our discussion, we have an article with detailed charts showing stock market performance from the Great Depression era to the present day under different administrations. Notice the upward progression despite political shifts—mirroring our resilient and growing economy.

Conclusion

Remember, as investors, it’s essential to look beyond the immediacy of political campaigns and focus on the long-term trends that historically have favored growth despite who’s in office. Join us again for more insights that demystify the intersection of politics and markets.

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